The changes in climate have alarming impacts on Indian economy, as the nation largely depend on the agriculture. The rainfall in June has a great importance in determining crop cultivation. Therefore, accurate forecast of rainfall is a necessity as far as the economy of India is concerned. The trends in Indian summer monsoon rainfall for June, July, August and September are estimated over 1950 – 2020. The positive trends are computed in June with a statistically significant trend in the NWI and negative trends in July except in the north east India where a significant positive trend is shown. Similarly, positive trends are evaluated in August and September except in the central India. Seasonally, an increase in precipitation is occurred in the north west and NEI, and decrease in precipitation in the west central and north central India while no trend is observed in the Peninsular India. Trends of extreme events are calculated that reveal precipitation increase in the Peninsular, north west and north east India and decrease in the west and north central India. In general, precipitation is increased in the dry and normal years everywhere except in the north central India. A statistically significant positive trend is found in July, September and JJAS season for all, dry and normal years in the north east India. The trends of moisture transport over the source regions give new insights about the influence of warming on the trends in ISMR.

Dr. Prijitha R. G. is working in the department of Environmental Sciences, University of Kerala as Chief Minister’s Nava Kerala postdoctoral fellow. She holds master’s degree in Physics from CUSAT, India and Ph.D. in Atmospheric Physics from UPMC/LATMOS/CNRS, France. She has participated in various international programmes and contributed to World Meteorological Organisation 2010 report on Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion. She is an editorial board member of national and International Journals. She has done research on cosmology, stratospheric ozone and rainfall. Her works include identification of ozone recovery and the drivers of Indian rainfall using statistical models with 12 publications in highly reputed journals.