Worldwide, malaria remains a serious threat from vector-borne disease. According to a report from the World Health Organization (WHO), there will be 241 million cases of malaria worldwide in 2020. Malaria is still one of the leading causes of death worldwide and is a serious health issue that primarily affects tropical nations. It is an infectious disease spread by female mosquitoes of the Anopheles species and caused by parasite protozoans of the genus Plasmodium.Climate conditions and the distribution of hydrometeorological variables, in particular temperature, precipitation, and humidity, have an impact on the spatiotemporal distribution of this vector. In this work, a numerical dynamical malaria model called VECTRI is employed, which is dependent on a number of climatic and non-climatic characteristics such surface temperature, rainfall, population density, etc. The climate model's inputs are used to run the VECTRI model for the 1951–2016 baseline period as well as the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s projection periods. To forecast the future regional malaria transmission throughout the centeral and western Africa due to climate change, we have assessed four malaria outcome parameters: temperature, rainfall, mosquito density, and entomological inoculation rate (EIR) across the model outputs. Our results shows that by the end of the century, that malaria transmission (EIR) will be increased with an increase in temperature over the south western and Central part of African region.

Prof. (Dr.) Ruchi Singh Parihar is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Statistics and Data Science at CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bangalore. Dr. Parihar specializes in Climate Data Analysis, Statistical/Mathematical Modeling, and Extreme Climate Impacts on Global human Health. She holds a Master’s degree from Jamia Millia Islamia University, New Delhi and completed her PhD research from Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi  (IIT) Delhi, focusing on Climate Change and Health using the Mathematical Modelling. Additionally, she did her Postdoctoral Research from IBS Center for Climate Physics, South Korea. Dr. Parihar’s research has led to interdisciplinary publications in prestigious journals. She has earned numerous international travel grants from (Rutgers University, USA, ICTP Italy, KAUST Saudi Arabia, ETH Zurich, BNU China), for her contributions to education and research. In 2024, she received the prestigious  Junior Associateship Award from ICTP, Italy. She maintains national and international collaborations and has served as a visiting researcher at esteemed institutions worldwide.

Prof. (Dr.) Ruchi Singh Parihar is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Statistics and Data Science at CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bangalore. Dr. Parihar specializes in Climate Data Analysis, Statistical/Mathematical Modeling, and Extreme Climate Impacts on Global human Health. She holds a Master’s degree from Jamia Millia Islamia University, New Delhi and completed her PhD research from Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi  (IIT) Delhi, focusing on Climate Change and Health using the Mathematical Modelling. Additionally, she did her Postdoctoral Research from IBS Center for Climate Physics, South Korea. Dr. Parihar’s research has led to interdisciplinary publications in prestigious journals. She has earned numerous international travel grants from (Rutgers University, USA, ICTP Italy, KAUST Saudi Arabia, ETH Zurich, BNU China), for her contributions to education and research. In 2024, she received the prestigious  Junior Associateship Award from ICTP, Italy. She maintains national and international collaborations and has served as a visiting researcher at esteemed institutions worldwide.